StatSheet Projects North Carolina as NCAA Tournament Bubble Team Nine Seed: 02/10/2013

Filed under StatSeed Update on February 10th, 2013
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StatSeed is StatSheet's postseason projections for all of Division I, including the NCAA Tournament, National Invitation Tournament (NIT), College Basketball Invitational (CBI), and the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT). Read more about how StatSeed is calculated.

StatSheet projects North Carolina as a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament with potentially a nine seed. The Tar Heels are #42 in the StatSheet StatRank with a 16-7 overall record and a 6-4 record in the ACC.

During the last four games, North Carolina held up strong with wins against Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and Boston College but also suffered a loss to AP #8 Miami (FL).

North Carolina is not that good against top competition, with a 3-5 record against the RPI Top 100 that includes a 1-5 record against the RPI Top 50 and an 0-4 record against AP ranked teams. While the Tar Heels have a single quality win against RPI #23 UNLV, they're also weighed down by two bad losses including RPI #102 Virginia and RPI #160 Texas.

The last four teams into the NCAA Tournament with at-large bids are Arizona State (18-6, 7-4 Pac 12, StatRank #66), Saint Mary's (21-4, 10-1 West Coast, StatRank #51), Wichita State (20-5, 9-4 Missouri Valley, StatRank #44), and Virginia Commonwealth (19-5, 7-2 A-10, StatRank #39).

The first four teams out are Alabama (15-8, 7-3 SEC, StatRank #70), Boise State (16-7, 4-5 Mountain West, StatRank #49), Southern Miss (18-6, 7-2 C-USA, StatRank #47), and Villanova (15-9, 6-5 Big East, StatRank #67).

The next four out are California (13-9, 5-5 Pac 12, StatRank #67), Rutgers (12-10, 3-8 Big East, StatRank #68), Saint Louis (18-5, 7-2 A-10, StatRank #56), and Temple (16-7, 5-4 A-10, StatRank #39).

Regional 1
#1Duke
#2Arizona
#3Gonzaga
#4Cincinnati
#5Butler
#6Marquette
#7Colorado State
#8Colorado
#9Belmont
#10Kentucky
#11Baylor
#12Maryland
#13Arizona State
#14Akron
#15FGCU
#16Davidson
#17Niagara
Regional 2
#1Florida
#2Kansas
#3Louisville
#4Georgetown
#5New Mexico
#6Missouri
#7Creighton
#8Illinois
#9Iowa State
#10Memphis
#11La Salle
#12Stanford
#13Bucknell
#14Harvard
#15Long Beach State
#16Northeastern
#17UNCA
Regional 3
#1Indiana
#2Miami (FL)
#3Michigan State
#4Kansas State
#5Oklahoma State
#6Notre Dame
#7NC State
#8UCLA
#9UNLV
#10Ole Miss
#11MTSU
#12VCU
#13Louisiana Tech
#14Stephen F. Austin
#15Montana
#16Western Illinois
#17SOU
Regional 4
#1Michigan
#2Syracuse
#3Ohio State
#4Minnesota
#5Oregon
#6Pittsburgh
#7Oklahoma
#8Wisconsin
#9North Carolina
#10San Diego State
#11St. John's
#12Wichita State
#13Saint Mary's
#14Valparaiso
#15Stony Brook
#16Bryant
#17NCCU

NCAA Tourney Projections by Conference


Conf
NCAA
Teams
Conf
Teams
Pct in
NCAA
Big East8 1650.0%
Big Ten7 1258.3%
Pac 126 1250.0%
Big 126 1060.0%
ACC5 1241.7%
SEC4 1233.3%
Mountain West4 850.0%
A-103 1421.4%
Missouri Valley2 1020.0%
West Coast2 922.2%
MAC1 128.3%
Patriot1 812.5%
Atlantic Sun1 1010.0%
Ohio Valley1 119.1%
Ivy League1 812.5%
SoCon1 128.3%
Big West1 911.1%
WAC1 812.5%
C-USA1 128.3%
Sun Belt1 128.3%
Big Sky1 911.1%
MAAC1 1010.0%
Big South1 119.1%
CAA1 128.3%
SWAC1 1010.0%
Southland1 128.3%
America East1 911.1%
Horizon1 1010.0%
Summit League1 1010.0%
NEC1 128.3%
MEAC1 137.7%

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Season Preview: UNC is very likely to have a better team than last year. Read our Season Preview
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ACC Standings

OverallConf
1 Virginia 30-7 16-2
2 Syracuse 28-6 14-4
3 Duke 26-9 13-5
 3North Carolina 24-10 13-5
5 Pittsburgh 26-10 11-7
6 Clemson 23-13 10-8
7 Florida State 22-14 9-9
7 NC State 22-14 9-9
7 Maryland 17-15 9-9
10 Miami (FL) 17-16 7-11
11 Wake Forest 17-16 6-12
11 Georgia Tech 16-17 6-12
11 Notre Dame 15-17 6-12
14 Boston College 8-24 4-14
15 Virginia Tech 9-22 2-16
Last updated: Apr 10th, 2014

2013-2014 Roster

#0 Nate Britt Fr G 5-11 165
#4 Luke Davis Jr G 6-0 175
#15 P.J. Hairston Jr G 6-6 220
#22 Isaiah Hicks Fr F 6-8 220
#14 Desmond Hubert Jr F 6-10 225
#42 Joel James So F 6-10 280
#11 Brice Johnson So F 6-9 210
#30 James Manor Sr F 6-6 220
#43 J. McAdoo Jr F 6-9 230
#2 Leslie McDonald Sr G 6-5 215
#3 Kennedy Meeks Fr F 6-9 290
#55 Wade Moody Sr G 6-0 175
#5 Marcus Paige So G 6-1 175
#34 Denzel Robinson Sr F 6-4 220
#21 Jackson Simmons Jr F 6-7 225
#13 J.P. Tokoto So F 6-5 200